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Between January and May this year, China added enough solar and wind capacity to power a country the size of Indonesia.
That’s just the beginning. In April alone, China installed more solar power than Australia has built in its entire history. In May, the country installed solar panels at a rate of nearly 100 per second, a breakneck pace that shows no signs of slowing. The transformation kicked into high gear when electricity finally overtook oil in China’s energy mix for the first time in 2023, and has only accelerated since.
The unprecedented scale of China’s renewable energy buildout is creating the world’s first major “electrostate” — an economy increasingly powered by electricity rather than direct fossil fuel consumption. The shift has implications far beyond climate policy, reshaping global trade flows and energy security dynamics as China reduces its dependence on imported oil while flooding global markets with cheap clean technology.x
Xi’s energy security gamble
The speed isn’t accidental. When Xi Jinping took power in 2012, he identified energy dependence as a critical vulnerability for a rising superpower. Even with all the new renewable energy, China still imports more oil than any other country, with much of it flowing through chokepoints like the South China Sea that could be severed in a conflict. Electrification offers an escape route that Xi has thrown the full weight of the Chinese state behind it.
The push wasn’t driven by climate concerns but by cold geopolitical calculus. As one Chinese energy analyst told Australia’s Broadcast Corporation: “Energy is a basic input for economic activities. Energy security is critical because it’s critical for supporting a functioning economy.”
The climate benefits, however, are undeniable. For the first time in 2025, China’s CO2 emissions actually fell despite rapid economic growth, according to Carbon Brief. And China’s clean energy exports in 2024 alone shaved 1 percent off global emissions outside of China.
Clean energy now accounts for 10% of China’s GDP, overtaking real estate as an economic driver. The sector generated a quarter of China’s growth last year, providing a crucial boost to an economy grappling with slowing expansion and a property crisis. What started as energy security has become an economic necessity.
The implications stretch far beyond China’s borders. Chinese companies now dominate global supply chains for solar panels, wind turbines, and electric vehicle batteries. The country’s manufacturing scale has crashed the price of clean technology worldwide, with Chinese solar panels cost 90% less than they did a decade ago, making the energy transition affordable for developing countries that couldn’t previously access it.
Perhaps most significantly, China now holds nearly 700,000 clean energy patents — more than half the world’s total. This isn’t just about manufacturing anymore; it’s about controlling the intellectual property that will define the next century of energy technology. Especially as President Trump pursues his “drill, baby, drill” agenda and promises to roll back clean energy incentives.
The timing couldn’t be more perfect for China’s strategy. Just as the world’s biggest tech companies are scrambling for massive amounts of clean, 24/7 power to fuel AI data centers, China has positioned itself as the go-to supplier of renewable energy technology. While American tech giants are signing deals to restart nuclear plants like Three Mile Island, China is already manufacturing the solar panels and batteries that could power the AI revolution more cheaply.
The long game
The race between American fossil fuels and Chinese clean technology will play out over decades, not years. The United States still has many customers for its enormous stores of oil, gas, and coal — roughly 80% of global energy needs are still met by fossil fuels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
China’s bet isn’t without risks. The country’s clean energy sector is showing signs of strain from hyper-competition, with major solar companies reporting combined losses of over $1 billion in the first quarter of this year. Industry executives are describing a “death cycle” of prices barely covering production costs. Meanwhile, China’s new renewable energy pricing policy, which removes guaranteed prices for wind and solar projects, has created uncertainty that could slow the breakneck installation pace.
But China has driven more than half of global oil demand growth for decades, making its pivot to homegrown renewable energy a blow for petrostates. And the IEA forecasts that oil, gas, and coal will fall below 60% of global energy needs by midcentury. China is positioning itself to capture the expanding clean energy market that will fill the gap.
The question isn’t whether the world will eventually go electric, with falling costs and improving technology making that transition inevitable. The question is whether China will control the technologies, supply chains, and patents that make it possible.
